#Polymarket

The signal arrived at 2:47 AM Manila time. A cluster of wallets, dormant for...

The Wall Street Journal's investigation into Polymarket's promotional tactics...

The data shows a soldier in uniform placing a bet on a geopolitical event. No...

The number flashed across my terminal at 3:47 AM Shanghai time: 78%. Not a...

There is a number floating through the crypto discourse this week, and it is...

Alerts screamed while the rest of the world slept. Legacy and Team Spirit...

A headline moved a market before the news even settled. That is the raw...

Hook 152 wallets. $8 million. 97.2% win rate. That’s not a whale’s lucky stre...

The White House just drew a line in the sand. Prediction markets—Polymarket,...

Fifty characters. That's the length of a bet slip on Polymarket, a binary...

In the quiet spaces between a smart contract’s compilation and its first user...

August 13, 2025. Baltimore files a lawsuit. August 18, 2025. Korea approves a...

I trace the wallet, not the whisper. This week, Polymarket announced a film...

Speed is the only currency that doesn't depreciate. Yesterday, a Citigroup...

We assume prediction markets are the natural domain of decentralized...

The Ballon d'Or ceremony concluded last night, and the silence from the Real...

The sprint never stops. Just when you thought the bear market had buried all...

The silence in on-chain prediction markets after NAVI's qualification for the...

The soul remains. Even in a sideways market, the truth is still being written...

The news landed like a lightning rod: Donald Trump, the newly inaugurated...

The odds of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September tripled on Polymarket over...

The market is wrong about prediction markets. When the NYC Council launched i...

Hook Reality check: The CFTC just used its emergency authority to keep a...

Two numbers sit side by side on a dashboard, separated by roughly ten thousan...

On the morning of August 9, the most honest snapshot of bitcoin's short-term...

The lawsuit itself is small. $170,000 is roughly one hour of trading volume o...

Kalshi wrapped the hedge in a blanket. Literally. The CFTC-regulated predicti...

Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market that spent years fighting...

Five U.S. lawmakers sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission...

Hook Over the past 24 hours, Polymarket’s “14‑day ceasefire in Ukraine” marke...

The data suggests a 10% drop in the probability of a 14-day ceasefire on...

The judge didn't legalize prediction markets. She simply reminded Minnesota...

16.5% YES. That’s the probability, as of press time, that crude oil hits a ne...

The numbers are sterile, as they should be. A prediction market assigns a 2.1...

On the same day the Trump administration floated a new ethics rule barring...

Oil barely moved. A few cents. US bombs hit Iran-backed targets, and the blac...

Alpha moves before the charts confirm the truth. Risk Alert: Prediction marke...

Kalshi spent $990,000 on federal lobbying in the first half of 2024. That...

Hype is the signal; silence is the warning. And in the corridors of Washingto...

Hook On the surface, it’s a headline that screams “bullish”: $330 million in...

27.5%. That’s the current price on Polymarket for a US invasion of Iran befor...

The Polymarket contract for a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2026 sits at 30.5%. Tha...

The numbers don’t lie – but they can deceive. On Polymarket, the probability...

I didn't expect to find a war contract on Polymarket that smelled more like a...

We didn't need a prediction market to tell us what we already knew: the harde...

On May 24, a precision airstrike hit Iran’s Electronics Industries in Shiraz....

Polymarket says 3.7%. That's the probability of US recognition of Palestine b...

The final whistle at the 2026 World Cup triggered a cascade of settlements on...

I used to think geopolitical risk was best measured by think tank reports and...

58.5%. That is the probability markets assigned on July 22 to Iran launching ...