#Polymarket

I didn't expect to find a war contract on Polymarket that smelled more like a...

We didn't need a prediction market to tell us what we already knew: the harde...

On May 24, a precision airstrike hit Iran’s Electronics Industries in Shiraz....

Polymarket says 3.7%. That's the probability of US recognition of Palestine b...

The final whistle at the 2026 World Cup triggered a cascade of settlements on...

I used to think geopolitical risk was best measured by think tank reports and...

58.5%. That is the probability markets assigned on July 22 to Iran launching ...

A single Polymarket contract shows Anthropic at 90.5% odds to be the third-be...

A drone carrying explosives was shot down near the US consulate in Erbil, Ira...

The numbers look good. Maybe too good. I remember the feeling. It was mid-202...

The code doesn't lie. But the men who write policy briefs? They have a more...

Polymarket contract on full airspace closure over the Middle East just settle...

On January 28, the Polymarket contract "US military action against Iran in...

Hook Seventy percent to thirty-one percent in six months. The Polymarket...

The number sat on Polymarket like a silent alarm: 0.21 USDC for YES. The mark...

The news wire spat out the update at 14:32:14. Thomas Tuchel, England manager...

The data shows a persistent anomaly. On Polymarket, the probability of...

The architecture of trust is built, not inherited. But when trust breaks,...

Over the past 72 hours, a solitary data point has been more informative than...

The siren wailed over Kyiv at 4:17 AM local time. By the time the last air...

The market moves before the missiles do. On May 24, 2024, Polymarket's contra...

Over the past 72 hours, a single data point has been haunting my terminal –...

The Polymarket contract reads: “Will the US strike IRGC units by July 22?” —...

A single headline from Crypto Briefing crossed my screen yesterday: 'US Strik...

A single number floats in the quiet hours of a sideways market: 25.5%. It is...

Most people see a 24% probability and think it's a market consensus. I see a...

The math holds until the incentive breaks. On Polymarket, a prediction contra...

The ledger does not lie, only the interpreters do. On March 18, 2026, a...

The chart is lying to you. Polymarket's volume hasn't crashed yet. French use...

The data shows a 31.5% probability that Iran will fully close its airspace by...

On 19 April 2025, at 14:32 UTC, the official England squad announcement...

The news hit my feed like a static shock: Ukrainian drones struck a Russian o...

The numbers flash across my screen. Polymarket shows a 35.5% chance of a...

An Iranian military advisor just dropped a data bomb that the crypto market i...

Prediction markets priced Iran regime collapse at 9.5% before the first blast...

The numbers are staggering. Over $2 billion in notional volume has been locke...

The whale didn't move. No single wallet cluster triggered this. No exploit. N...

A report surfaced late Tuesday evening—US airstrike in Iran’s Hormozgan kills...

The market is pricing Argentina at 41.2% to win the World Cup. That's almost...

The market is a liar. Not always, but often enough that a forensic skeptic...

I just scraped Polymarket's full order book for every 2026 World Cup...

We didn’t expect to see prediction markets become the go-to source for...

Between the blocks, silence screams the truth. On June 26, a prediction marke...

Hook Polymarket shows a 12.5% probability that Houthi forces will strike Isra...

The Hormozgan travel advisory hit the wire at 3:17 AM Jakarta time. Iran’s...

The headline hits at 2:17 PM Eastern: Iran terminates the agreement. Within...

Polymarket displayed a 99.9% probability of Iran launching a drone assault by...

They claimed a 99.9% probability on Polymarket. Seven days before the deadlin...

Hook A prediction market on Polymarket assigned a 99.9% probability to an...

Hook Over the past 48 hours, the crypto chatter was dominated by one headline...